The 242nd World Athletics Council meeting runs in Budapest across Monday and Tuesday, chaired by Sebastian Coe, and it closes with the decision the sport has been waiting on since the bid deadline passed: the host cities for the 2029 and 2031 World Athletics Championships. A media briefing is scheduled for Tuesday lunchtime. Nairobi, London, Rome and Munich are the candidates for 2029, and the outcome will settle a question the sport has circled for the better part of two decades.

Nairobi's case is the one that changes the shape of the answer. No senior World Athletics Championships has ever been staged in Africa, a fact that sits awkwardly alongside the continent's share of the sport's distance-running medals and, increasingly, its sprinting ones. Athletics Kenya submitted the bid formally earlier this year, and the city has the recent experience to point at, having hosted the World Under-20 Championships at the Moi International Sports Centre. The counterarguments are the familiar ones for a first-time host of a ten-day global championship: stadium capacity, hotel stock, broadcast infrastructure and the guarantees required to underwrite all three.

London, Rome and Munich each bring the opposite profile. All three have stadiums that have held major athletics championships within living memory, all three have the transport and accommodation base a nine-day event needs, and all three come with commercial certainty that a federation planning its revenue lines several cycles ahead will find hard to dismiss. London's 2017 championships remain the best-attended in the event's history, which is a difficult number for a rival bid to argue with, and Rome staged a well-received European Championships in 2024.

The 2031 decision is being taken in the same session, which gives the Council an option it does not usually have: it can balance the two awards against each other. Awarding a first African championship in 2029 and a commercially safe European edition in 2031, or the reverse, are both available outcomes, and the sequencing matters for how much lead time a first-time host would get. Coe has spent his presidency arguing that the sport needs to expand its geographic footprint rather than rotate between the same half-dozen venues, and this is the most direct test of that position he has faced.

The timing is not accidental. The Council is meeting immediately after the inaugural World Athletics Ultimate Championship, three days of racing in Budapest that closed on Sunday with the United States taking ten of the 28 titles and a prize fund designed to make the point that the sport can pay properly when it chooses to. That event was itself an argument about where athletics should be staged and how it should be packaged. Whatever the Council announces on Tuesday will be read in the same light.